Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We are at a key resistance
Fundamental
Overview
Crude oil has been
falling steadily since topping around the $87.50 level following the mutual
retaliations between Iran and Israel. The drop has been kind of a
head-scratcher though as there are global growth expectations amid China and
other major central banks policy easing, improving PMIs and OPEC+ extending the
voluntary production cuts until the end of the year.
The death of Iranian
President Raisi doesn’t change anything for the market as quoting the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “there won’t be any disruption to the country’s
affairs”. In the big picture, crude oil is still trading in a 70-90 range, so
there’s nothing exciting going on, but in the short-term it should remain supported
unless there is a latent slowing down in demand.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily
chart, we can see that crude oil probed below the trendline
several times but failed to extend the drop into new lows. The market got stuck
in a consolidation just beneath the key $80 level and we will likely need a
catalyst to get things going again.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour
chart, we can see more clearly the key resistance
zone around the $80 level and we can also see that we have a downward trendline
adding extra confluence
to the barrier. This is where the sellers keep stepping in with a defined risk
above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the
other hand, will need a breakout to the upside to start targeting an extension
to the $84.50 level next.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour
chart, we can see that the rangebound price action doesn’t offer much trading opportunities.
From a risk management perspective, the best spot for the sellers to enter
short positions is around the resistance, while the buyers might want to wait
for the support around the $77 level. Nevertheless, a breakout to the upside is
likely to increase the bullish momentum and trigger a rally into the $84.50
level.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front with the only
highlight being the US PMIs on Thursday where weak data might weigh on crude
oil while strong figures could give it a boost.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The uptrend remains intact
Fundamental
Overview
Last week, we saw
the USDJPY pair falling after the US CPI report as the market shrugged off rate
hikes fears and consolidated the Fed’s higher for longer stance. The following
day, the JPY started to lose ground again as not only the interest rates
differential remains strong, but we have also the positive risk sentiment due
to global growth expectations.
In such an
environment, the JPY is unlikely to catch a sustained bid. The trend will
likely change only when we start to get some recessionary US data that will make
the market to price in a more aggressive rate cut path.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily
chart, we can see that the USDJPY pair is trading in the middle of the major trendline
and the 160.00 handle. The price rallied above the key 155.00 level again
recently which is acting as a kind of barometer for the sentiment on the pair
with the price staying above being more bullish and below it being more
bearish.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour
chart, we can see that more clearly the rally above the key 155.00 level
following the US jobless claims figures and then an extension to the 156.00
handle. We can notice that the 156.00 level has been a strong resistance,
so a break above it should see the buyers increasing the bullish bets into the
156.80 level next.
The sellers, on
the other hand, are likely leaning on this resistance with a defined risk above
it to position for a drop into the 155.00 level targeting a break below it. If
we do get another pullback into the 155.00 level, we can expect the buyers to
pile in again and target a rally into the 160.00 handle.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is pretty empty
on the data front with the only highlight being the US PMIs on Thursday.
See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.87; (P) 169.10; (R1) 169.42; More… EUR/JPY’s rise from 1.6401 resumed by breaking 169.38 and intraday bias is back on the upside. This rally, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58, should target this high next. On the downside, break of 167.31 support should turn bias back to the […]
The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8547; (P) 0.8566; (R1) 0.8577; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 0.8259 support. Decisive break there will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491/7 support one. On the upside, above 0.8579 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first. […]
The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6210; (P) 1.6259; (R1) 1.6288; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AD is back on the downside with breach of 1.6216 support. Current fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to […]
The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9848; (P) 0.9866; (R1) 0.9901; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9899. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural resistance. On the downside, below 0.9851 minor support […]
The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
AUD/USD Daily Report
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6662; (P) 0.6681; (R1) 0.6714; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 0.6713. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. In the bigger […]
The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3594; (P) 1.3619; (R1) 1.3637; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Break of 1.3589 will resume whole fall from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from 1.3761 at 1.3524. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628) will argue that whole rise from […]
The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 155.63; (R1) 156.02; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below 153.59 will target […]
The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9062; (P) 0.9080; (R1) 0.9110; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further rise should then be seen to retest 0.9223. On the downside, though, break […]
The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0861; (R1) 1.0886; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.0894. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.1138 has completed at 1.0601 […]
The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2660; (P) 1.2686; (R1) 1.2727; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 1.2708 resistance will extend the rise from 1.2298 to 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. On the downside, below 1.2642 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. […]
The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Gold hit a record high, silver and copper surged also
- Federal Reserve speakers on Monday include Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson
- Iranian state media has confirmed no survivors of helicopter crash
- Saudi Crown Prince postpones his trip to Japan
- ICYMI - China’s benchmark lending rates were held steady: 1 yr LPR @ 3.45% 5 yr @ 3.95%
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1042 (vs. estimate at 7.2162)
- China sets 1 and 5 year LPR rates unchanged, as expected
- Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is speaking on Monday
- PIMCO says Federal Reserve and RBA’s next move is more likely a cut rather than a hike
- Weak consumption in Japan may further pressure BoJ to raise interest rates, slow yen fall
- Oil - Morgan Stanley expect demand growth greater than normal
- New Zealand's RBNZ Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends cash rate on hold this week
- UBS expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year - here's why
- Strong evidence suggest significant Chinese FX intervention in April to prop up CNY (yuan)
- A helicopter carrying Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and other leaders has gone missing
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 20 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 20 May 2024
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell Sunday speech - no comment on monetary policy or the economy
- Weekly Market Outlook (20-24 May)
- Join us in Johannesburg, South Africa this week
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 17 May.The price of the DXY index closes below its 100W MA
The
week opened up with ears open for a Sunday (US time) speech from
Federal Reserve Chair Powell. It was a commencement speech at a law
school, which Powell gave remotely via video as he contracted Covid
late last week. Powell did not comment on the economy or policy.
Data
flow was barely existent.
We
did, however, have the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) settings from the
People’s Bank of China. LPRs play a vital role in determining
interest rates for loans and mortgages in China. The PBoC left both
the 1- and 5-year unchanged, as was widely expected, at 3.45% and
3.95% respectively. The last time the 1-year was cut was back in
August last year while the 5-year was cut in February this year.
Expectations are that the People's Bank of China is still likely to
ease monetary policy further. One compelling reason is that more
liquidity will be needed for China's banks to purchase government
bonds, including the issuance of ultralong special Treasury bonds
that started last Friday - these bonds are raising cash for
economy-building purposes (stimulus).
On
the news front, a helicopter carrying Iranian president
Ebrahim Raisi and Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein
Amir-Abdollahian crashed in a
mountainous area of the East Azerbaijan region of Iran, northwest of
Tehran and bordering Azerbaijan. It took many hours for the downed
chopper to be found and when it was it was just smashed and burned
wreckage. No one aboard survived.
This
has implications, potentially, for the oil price. While there are no
suggestions, yet at least, of foul play, if these surface and perhaps
the blame laid on the US or Israel it’d be an escalation of an already
tense Middle East situation. Which would, at the margin, be
supportive of oil.
In
other news the Saudi King, Salman bin Abdulaziz, will undergo a
treatment programme at Al Salam Palace in Jeddah for a lung
inflammation. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was due
in Japan from May 20 to May 23. He has postponed the trip. He was to
meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
The
oil price nudged higher today with both these items out of the Middle
East.
Gold,
silver and copper jumped. Gold to a record high.
USD/JPY
rose towards 156.00 and has once again pulled back from there.
Major FX was mainly bound in small ranges only.
Brent oil, tiny opening gap to begin the week:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
2024/05/20-1403/2/31 مشاهده کامل
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0601 resumed last week and further to 1.0894 before retreating. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.1138 has […]
The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY fell sharply after edging higher to 156.78 but recovered again after hitting 153.59. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below […]
The post USD/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2298 resumed by breaking through 1.2633 last week. Initial bias is now on the upside this week. Firm break of 1.2708 resistance will target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. On the downside, below 1.2642 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But further rise will now […]
The post GBP/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF rebounded strongly after edging lower to 0.8987 last week, but upside is capped below 0.9101 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further rise should then be seen to retest […]
The post USD/CHF Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
AUD/USD Weekly Report
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.6713. Initial bias remains neutral for some consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. In the bigger […]
The post AUD/USD Weekly Report appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3589 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.3689 resistance holds. Break of 1.3589 will resume whole fall from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from 1.3761 at 1.3524. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA […]
The post USD/CAD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY retreated after rising further to 169.38 last week but then recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is expected. Break of 169.38 will resume the rally from 164.01, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58, towards this 171.58. On the downside, break of 167.31 should turn bias […]
The post EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP’s fall last week argues that rebound from 0.8529 has completed at 0.8619 already. Initial bias remain the downside this week for 0.8529 support first. Decisive break there will that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491/7 support one. On the upside, above 0.8579 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn […]
The post EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/18-1403/2/29 مشاهده کامل
Dollar Still in Recovery With Indecisive Momentum; Eyes on USD/CHF Resistance
Dollar is gradually recovering from the selloff triggered by US CPI data release earlier in the week. However, the recovery momentum remains indecisive. US stock markets, after a record run, are taking a breather, but bullish sentiment still appears dominant. The stock rally might resume if DOW convincingly breaks the 40k mark, which could again […]
The post Dollar Still in Recovery With Indecisive Momentum; Eyes on USD/CHF Resistance appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/17-1403/2/28 مشاهده کامل
Global Markets Rally on Central Bank Easing Signals; Currencies Show Subdued Movements
Global markets were buoyed by pervasive risk-on sentiment last week, with both FTSE and DAX setting new records and major US indices posting substantial gains. Even Hong Kong HSI extended its rally from January’s lows by 25%, underscoring a broad uptick in investor confidence. In Europe, enthusiasm was particularly pronounced following the ECB’s reaffirmation of […]
The post Global Markets Rally on Central Bank Easing Signals; Currencies Show Subdued Movements appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/11-1403/2/22 مشاهده کامل
Weak Sterling Awaits UK GDP, Gold Poised to Reach Record High
Sterling remains one of the weakest performers this week, despite lack of strong selling momentum. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill reaffirmed the market’s expectations that the central bank would start to consider interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings. These messages echoed the slight dovish shift noted in yesterday’s BoE rate decision. Attention is now shifting […]
The post Weak Sterling Awaits UK GDP, Gold Poised to Reach Record High appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/05/10-1403/2/21 مشاهده کامل