EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD recovered further to 1.0752 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 low. In […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 158.43. Initial bias stay on the upside this week. Next target is 138.2% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 161.14. On the downside, below 156.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. In the bigger picture, current […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD rebounded after edging lower to 1.2298 last week. But upside is capped by 1.2538 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2421 will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 will bring stronger rally to […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF breached 0.9151 resistance briefly but retreated back into established range. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the downside for deeper […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
AUD/USD Weekly Report
AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6361 extended higher last week and further rally is expected as long as 0.6482 support holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6482 minor support will turn […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3845 extended lower last week and further decline is in favor as long as 1.3730 minor resistance holds. Next target is 55 D EMA (now at 1.3599). On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 169.38. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 169.96 high the downside, below 167.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pull back should be contained well above 165.33 resistance turned support to bring another […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8643 last week but reversed after rejection by medium term trendline resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8582 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook
EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6742 resumed by breaking through 1.6368 support last week. The development revived the case that rise from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 1.6127 support next. On the upside, above […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF rebounded further to 0.9797 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9708 minor support holds. Break of 0.9797 will target a retest on 0.9847 high. However, break of 0.9708 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the […]
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2024/04/27-1403/2/8 مشاهده کامل
EURJPY gets close to 2008 high at 169.96. Break above and trading at 32-year-high
The EURJPY has reached a high of 168.8942. That is down the price within the 100 pips of the high price going back to July 2008 at 168.941. Trading above that level would take the pair to the highest level since September 1992.
Traders may look to lean against the high ceiling area from 2008 with stops on a break above (see red number circles in yellow area on the chart above). However, if it is like the USDJPY, be careful.
The USDJPY moved above the 155.00 level this week (on Wednesday) and apart from a flush out immediately after the rate decision today, has been trending higher. The USDJPY price currently trades at 157.864
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
NZDUSD holds resistance against 50% retracement this week and rotates lower. What next?
The NZDUSD this week moved higher on Thursday and moved up to test the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 0.59668, before backing off on the stronger US GDP and price data.
The price retraced the entire move to the downside with momentum in the Asian session today. That follow-through upside move took the prize back up to the 50% midpoint level where traders banged against the level on a number of different hourly bars in both the Asian and European morning session. However, the price could not push through that midpoint level with much momentum, and the price has since rotated to the downside with the overall dollar buying today.
The move lower has come down to test a lower channel trendline. Support buyers have come in against that level.
So resistance held against the 50% retracement. Support held against the upward sloping channel trendline. Those levels will be key barometers on the top and bottom side for both buyers and sellers in the new trading week.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
USDJPY on pace to its largest percentage gain since October 2023
The USDJPY continues to run to the upside with the currency pair now up 1.32% on the day. That is the largest increase since the end of October when the pair moved up 1.75%.
It is Golden Week next week and markets are closed on Monday in Japan.
The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. It is what was said that has increased the bullish bias for the pair (selling of the JPY).
During a press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda outlined the central bank's current monetary policy stance and considerations for future adjustments. Ueda emphasized that the BOJ plans to maintain easy financial conditions for the time being but indicated that the bank's future monetary policy will be guided by the evolving economic and price conditions, rather than being dictated by a single indicator. He acknowledged that while the Japanese economy has shown moderate recovery, there are still some weaknesses, and highlighted the need to monitor financial and foreign exchange market movements due to their potential impact on the economy and prices.
Governor Ueda clarified that the BOJ's policy is not aimed at directly controlling the exchange rate but noted that they will continue to observe the effects of foreign exchange on the economy and inflation. Despite the weak yen not significantly influencing trend inflation so far, it has contributed somewhat to higher inflation forecasts. Ueda stated that the likelihood of reaching the BOJ's 2% inflation target is gradually increasing and that adjustments to the degree of monetary easing might be necessary if underlying inflation rises. He also mentioned that foreign exchange fluctuations could be a factor in monetary policy decisions if they significantly affect underlying inflation, though the impact of FX on inflation is generally considered temporary.
"Continuing to observe" is not all that scary. Also, the weak yen has not significantly influenced price trend inflation is also not scary.
That opened the door for the run to the upside. The 160.00 level is getting closer and closer. The high swing level from May 1990 hit at 160.40
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
The USD is moving higher vs the major currencies. What has it done to the technicals?
The USD is moving to the upside, and in the process is shifting the technical bias more in the direction of the buyers. In this video I take a look at five of the major currency pairs including the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and USDCAD.
EURUSD: The EURUSD is now below its 100 hour moving average at 1.0695 but is finding some support buying near its 200 hour moving average 1.06715. Those levels will dictate the barometer for the pair going forward with the sellers making a play.
USDJPY: The USDJPY continues its march to the upside. In a trending market like the USDJPY, it is wise to not try pick the top but to have the market tell you from a technical perspective, when a top might be in place. I outline what would give the sellers a win against the buyers. Absent that and the buyers are in firm control (and the trend can continue)
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has a fallen like the EURUSD, and is down testing at 100-day moving average 1.2442 and 200 hour moving average 1.2436. Getting below those levels is needed to increase the bearish.
USDCHF: The USDCHF is moving higher and in the process is moving closer to the ceiling area between 0.9146 and 0.9156. That area has stalled the rallies over the month of a broad. Moreover on breaks, momentum has faded very quickly. So the price needs to get and stay above that level to increase the bullish bias.
USDCAD: The USDCAD is rebounding and in the process is moving above it 100-day moving average, and it's 100-hour moving average on the 4-hour chart near 1.3682 – 1.3686.. Staying above those levels would give the buyers more confidence. Earlier today, the USDCAD moved to the lowest level since April 10 and below a swing area between 1.3654 and 1.3668.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
USDJPY moves to another new high... Buyers in firm control
The USDJPY has continued its march the upside with a run to a new session high.
Earlier today, the Bank of Japan Policy was unchanged. The initial reaction was a run to the downside with the low price reaching 154.96. That took the price just below its 100-hour moving average but stalled ahead of its 200-hour moving average (blue and green lines on the chart above). Sellers had a shot. They missed. The buyers remained in control.
The subsequent bounce-back rally as seen from fits of ups-and-downs but buyers still remained in control.
You can see that on the 5-minute chart below. There was a dip in the London morning session that took the price toward the 100-bar moving average on a chart (blue line on the chart below). Buyers came in and snapped the price back to the upside.
The other corrective moves have not approached the rising 100 bar MA.
That 100-bar moving average currently comes in 156.695. It would take a move below that moving average (and it is moving higher) to give the sellers a victory technically. Absent that, and the buyers remain firmly in control.
When the price is trending, it is best to let the price action tell you when a top may be in place. Remember that corrective moves may also be limited as trends are fast, directional and tend to go further than expected. It is up to the seller to show they can take control.
The price is now up to 157.25....
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
USDCHF trades up and down again today. Holds the 100 bar MA/retracement level
The USDCHF made on low on Tuesday against its rising 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart. Today, the low price today also found support against its 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart. That sets the moving average as a key barometer on the downside going forward.
On the topside this week, the highs extended to new highs for the week both on Wednesday and Thursday, but only by a few pips on each break. As a result, there is a swing area ceiling between 0.91469 and 0.91558. Going forward the price would need to get above those levels to increase the bullish bias.
In between sets the 100 and 200-hour moving averages between 0.9117 and 0.9126. The current price is above those levels, giving a tilt to the upside in the short-term technically. Staying above is more bullish.
The above video outlines the key technical levels in play and explains why.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0754; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.0601 could extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0784). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 low. In the bigger […]
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2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2495; (R1) 1.2543; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of […]
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2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9104; (P) 0.9137; (R1) 0.9155; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback. In the […]
The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
Kickstart the FX trading day for April 26 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
The US core PCE data came out a little more tame than what was probably feared by the market. US yields are below are a bit lower. The premarket US stocks are still higher but off their highest levels. The US dollar has seen fluctuations up and down.
In this video I look at the technicals of the three major currency pairs POST the news, and outline the bias, risks and targets.
The news is out. The markets have initially reacted. What next? Find out in this video what key levels will help drive the short-term/medium-term momentum
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.32; (P) 155.53; (R1) 155.87; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Some resistance could be seen there to bring retreat. But further rally is expected as long as 154.77 resistance turned support holds. Sustained break of 157.09 will […]
The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.28; (P) 166.68; (R1) 167.42; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside as recent up trend continues. Next target is 168.72 projection level. On the downside, below 166.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally. In the bigger picture, current rally is […]
The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8563; (P) 0.8577; (R1) 0.8590; More… Break of 55 4H EMA suggests that EUR/GBP’s rise from 0.8519 has completed at 0.8643, ahead of medium term trend line resistance. near term bearishness is retained. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8599 minor resistance […]
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2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6419; (P) 1.6453; (R1) 1.6495; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.6368 support will revive that case that rebound from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.7062. Deeper decline would then be […]
The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9773; (P) 0.9786; (R1) 0.9801; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.9563 would target a retest on 0.9847. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9252 high. On the downside, below 0.9708 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for […]
The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
2024/04/26-1403/2/7 مشاهده کامل