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USDCHF bounces as flight to safety flows abate. What levels are in play going forward?

The USDCHF moved lower this week helped by flight to safety flows after strong selling in the equity markets. That move lower, took the price back below its 200 day moving average near 0.8883, and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December low also at that level.

More momentum took the price below a swing area near 0.8819, and when that was broken, down to the 50% midpoint of the same move higher from the December 2023 low at the 0.8777 level.

Technically, buyers leaned against that level - helped by rebounding stocks today - and the price of the USDCHF has moved back above the aforementioned level at 0.8819.

So overall,

• There is strong support at the 50% midpoint at 0.8777.
• There is strong resistance against the 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement at 0.8883.

In between sets a swing area at 0.8819 and that level will be the rudder in the new trading week for more bullish above and more bearish below.

From there, traders will need to either break above the strong resistance, or break below the strong support.

To prepare for the new trading week, watch the video above.

USDCAD. Is it a break or is it not? Well a little of both. A technical look at the USDCAD

The USDCAD broke above the "Red Box" that I have been talking about for weeks and weeks. That led to buying yesterday, but the high extreme price from April could not be broken convincingly and there was a rotation lower.

However, buyers did come in near the high of the "Red Box" (see chart below and the video of course). That kept the buyers and play and the price has since rotated back to the swing high from April. Get and stay above that level increases the bullish bias.

In a video look ahead to what would happen on further upside momentum and explain why.

So overall, there was a break in USDCAD but there is work to do.

AUDUSD is bouncing after exhausting momentum. NZDUSD has a small bounce. Not impressed

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been running in tandem this week to the downside, but the NZDUSD has seen more downside momentum.

Yesterday, the AUDUSD fell below its key 200 day moving average and 50% retracement near 0.6583 and 0.6579 respectively. The price then increase momentum with a break below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low at 0.65283.

However momentum quickly shifted back to the upside on dip buying, and when the price moved back above the 61.8% retracement (at 0.65283 - see chart below), the shorts started to cover. That move higher has continued today with the price reaching a high of 0.6568.

Going forward in the AUDUSD, it still takes a move above the 50% retracement at 0.65797 and the 200-day moving average at 0.6583 to give buyers added confidence. On the downside, a break back below 61.8% retracement of 0.6528, would give sellers more confidence for more downside momentum.

The NZDUSD (see chart below), has been on a speedier downside path last week and into this week. For it, the price fell below at 61.8% retracement on Monday at 0.59927 and increased momentum for the rest of the week.

After a brief stall at 0.5914, the price fell below that level yesterday and extended nearly to the May 1 low at 0.5873 and the April 19 low at 0.5879 (ahead of those levels).

The subsequent bounce off it's lows, has only taken the price up to 0.59045. If the buyers are to take more control they need to get above the 0.5900 level (and stay above) and then the 0.59145 level at a minimum.

Absent that, and the buyers are simply not winning. The sellers are winning.

Watch the video to see and here it all!

Kickstart the FX trading day for July 26 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

In the kickstart video for July 26, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs from a technical perspective - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

The EURUSD is trading up and down over the last three trading days. In the buyer's favor, the low price today stalled ahead of its 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the June low. That level comes in at 1.08394. Moving below that level would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average 1.0815. On the top side, the 1.0872 area is a swing level. Watch the video and find out about it.

The USDJPY is seeing some upside momentum today after it held a key support level yesterday (finally). The USDJPY fall is being blamed for the decline in US stocks this week on the upwind of the carry trade (maybe a little). Nevertheless traders are watching the movement in the USDJPY to take trading clues in stocks. Technically, the USDJPY moved into a swing level between 154.52 and 154.87 and found sellers. The broken 38.2% of the move up from the December 2023 comes in at 153.65. Watch that for support.

THe GBPUSD - like the EURUSD - is consolidating in up-and-down trading today. What sex out on its chart is the ability to stay up on a broken trendline (see video). The 1.2844 – 1.2860 swing area is also in play on the downside. On the top side, traders will watch 1.2879 (38.2% retracement of the move-up from the June low), and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2892 is resistance

Find out all about it in the video. Be sure to like, share and if you have comments, put them in this post. I would love to hear from you.