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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise

• WSJs Timiraos: A solid September payroll takes a lot of November Fed meeting
• US major indices close the day higher helped by strong jobs
• White House economic advisor Brainerd expects impact on employment from hurricane Helene
• Oil prices move lower after present Biden says he woul not support striking an oilfield
• REUTERS: US military carries out strikes against multiple Houthi targets in Yemen
• Israeli army is preparing to expand its operation in southern Lebanon
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -5 at 479
• European equity close: Decent finish but down on the week
• JPMorgan now sees the Fed cutting by 25 basis points
• Bank of America now sees Fed cutting 25 bps in November from 50 bps
• More from Goolsbee: Will have discussions about what rate we need to ultimately settle on
• Fed's Goolsbee: This is a super jobs report
• This was the early tell in the recession reversal trade
• Tech sector rallies: Innovation fuels market gains
• Fed's Williams doesn't comment on monetary policy or the outlook
• Good news is good news: US stock futures jump
• US September non-farm payrolls +254K vs +140K expected
• The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the US NFP release
• ECB's De Guindos says inflation to near 2% by 2025 but too early for victory laps

The US September jobs report today exceeded expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 254K compared to the 140K anticipated. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%, nearly reaching 4.0%, and the participation rate held steady at 62.7%.

Private payrolls surged by 223K, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, both above forecasts.Manufacturing payrolls dropped by 7K, an improvement over prior data.

The household survey showed a gain of 430K jobs, with a notable increase in full-time employment (+631K) but a decrease in part-time jobs (-201K). The strong data diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the November meeting, driving the US dollar higher, but implies a more solid US economy.

With the Fed feeling that inflation is under control, if the jobs gains fill job needs, there is a chance it may not be inflationary and therefore may keep the Fed on it recalibration path. Fed's Goolsbee was the only Fed officisl who commented on the report, descriving it as "super," and also highlighted the end of the port strike as additional positive news.

However, he cautioned against reacting too strongly to a single data point, emphasizing that more reports like this would increase confidence in achieving full employment. He noted that strong job numbers are likely to reflect strong GDP growth.

While the Fed is still determining the neutral interest rate, he suggested it is likely higher than zero and could fall within the 2.5-3.5% range, though there is time to figure this out. Goolsbee stressed the importance of maintaining current economic conditions, and while productivity growth could lead to a higher neutral rate, the economy would need to handle it.

He also acknowledged that broad indicators show the labor market is cooling, but rejected the notion of a "soft landing" as the economy continues to move forward.

The Fed's ideal scenario would see unemployment between 4-4.5% and inflation around 2%, which he believes would satisfy the Fed's goals. As more data becomes available ahead of the next Fed meeting, Goolsbee warned that external shocks could still derail efforts toward a soft landing.

For now, however, it is back to happy/giddy times. Next week the US CPI data will be released with the expectation for the headline (0.1%) and the core (0.2%) to be on the tame side once again, although the core YoY is still elevated at 3.2%. The headline YoY is expected to dip to 2.3% from 2.5%.

The news today sent stocks higher with the Dow industrial average closing at a new record high. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 341.16 points or 0.81% at 42352.75
• S&P index rose 51.13 points or 0.90% at 5751.07
• NASDAQ index rose 219.37 points or 1.22% at 18137.85

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 32.65 points or 1.50% at 2212.79.

For the trading week, the gains were modest with the Nasdaq up 0.10%, the Dow up 0.09% and the S&P up 0.22%.

IN the US debt market, yields moved sharply higher with:

• 2 year yield: 3.928%, +21.4 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.807%, +17.4 basis points
• 10-year yield 3.967%, +11.7 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.249%, +.0 basis points

For the trading week:

• 2 year rose 36.5 basis points
• 5 year rose 30.0 basis points
• 10 year rose 21.3 basis points
• 30 year rose 14.5 basis points

Mortgage rates are back up 6.5%

Looking at the strongest weakest of the major currencies, the GBP and the USD are the strongest while the JPY is the weakest.

USDJPY breaks higher this week and extends above the 38.2% of move down from July 3 high

As the week comes to a close, the USDJPY is trading near the highs for the day and the week. The move to the upside today off the unexpected US jobs report, was able to take the price above a key swing area ceiling around the 147.33 level and also above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 3 high at 148.116.

Both of those levels will be support for traders going into the new trading week. Going forward, if the price can remain above each, the buyers are still in play.

On the topside, the high price from August 15 at 149.356 is the next target to get to and through. Move above that level and traders would start to target a cluster of key targets including the:

• 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high at 150.75
• The 200 day moving average at 151.046
• The 100 day moving average at 151.599.

This week, the Japan's PM dialed back his call for a hike, and BOJ Ueda said that the markets were unstable. In the past, he commented that he unstable market would keep the Bank of Japan on the sidelines. That has been a tail wind for a weaker JPY. The US jobs report, gave the dollar buyers more incentive to take the USDJPY higher as well.

The EURUSD had moved lower to the next target support, setting the levels for next week.

As we head into the close, the EURUSD is trading near lows for the week.

The strong US jobs data today helped to push the pair below a swing area between 1.1001 and 1.1014, and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0995. That area will now be close resistance going into the new trading week.

On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the same move higher comes in at 1.0944. That is within a swing area going back to July 17 between 1.09419 and 1.0949. That will be a key bias-defining level for next week's traders on the downside. Move below it, and then its 100-day moving average at 1.0928, and traders would then look toward the 200-day moving average of 1.08738 (and moving higher).

Oil prices move lower after present Biden says he woul not support striking an oilfield

Crude price have moved lower after Pres. Biden said that he would think about other alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields. The high price of oil reached $75.53. It is currently trading at $74.22. That's still up around $0.50 on the day.

Crude oil is now settling the day up $0.67 or 0.91% at $74.38.

For the trading week, the price is up $5.79 or 8.42%. The most recent low was down at $65.29 during the week of September 9. The high this week at $75.53 (reached today) was the highest level since August 30.

Technically, the price today got close to its falling 100 day moving average at $76.11.

NZDUSD continues lower today. RBNZ 50 BP cut expected next week.

The RBNZ will meet next week and expectations are a 50 basis point cut (they meet on Wednesday in NZ). The fall today and the price below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.61796. That area will now be close resistance. On the downside the 100 day moving average comes in at 0.6121. The 50% retracement of the move up from the August low comes in at 0.6113, the 200 day moving average comes in at 0.6099.

That area between 0.6099 and 0.61213 will be a key downside target that sellers would need to push to and through if they are to take back more control in this currency pair.

With the NZDUSD expected to cut by 50 basis points in the US Fed thoughts down to 25 basis points for the next meeting, does not allow for this pair to shift the bias down, or just to the key support near near 0.6100?

That seems to be what traders might be thinking.

The AUDUSD is lower and below a key downside target.What next for today and going forward

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower in US trading today on the back of the stronger US jobs report. The move lower took the price below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 11 low at 0.6819 and also the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6823.

On the downside, the pair is approaching another key level defined by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September 11 low, the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, and a swing level going back to as far as a September 18. That level comes in at 0.67813.

Getting below that area opens the door for further downside momentum.

On the daily chart, the price also moved below the 61.8% retracement of the range since the January 2023 high. That level comes in at 0.68182, and is within a swing area on the same daily chart between 0.6805 and 0.68206.

So the combination of technical levels from the hourly chart and the daily chart sets overhead resistance near 0.6820 to 0.6823. That is going to be the technical ceiling today and going forward. Stay below keeps the bears more in control. IF that is the case, the downside door opens further with a move below 0.67813.

USD/JPY nears 149.00 as ten-year yields near 4%. Watch both

It looks like Treasuries want to test 4%.

Back-tracking a few weeks, the 3.6% level was a recession trade but with the US economy looking stronger now, it's safer to price the bottom of Fed funds at 3% or 3.50%. Add in some term premium and 4% makes sense.

I expect some strong bids if 4% is touched because that's something of a FOMO level but ranging in the 3.80-4.00% zone sounds compelling. Perhaps the case is for upside from there, particularly if China continues with stimulus and oil continues higher, re-igniting inflation fears.

The dollar is more-tied to the front-end but you can see the similarities with USD/JPY as it's also testing the early August highs.

I suspect we take a break here as we wait for the CPI report next week but right now it's tough to fight the US dollar.

Bank of America now sees Fed cutting 25 bps in November from 50 bps

The market is pricing in just a 6% chance of a cut. Pricing in Fed fund futures shows 25.9%.

Is it too early for someone to make the 'hold' call?

The USDCAD runs higher after the US jobs report.What next technically for traders ?

The USDCAD is higher after the shorter than expected US jobs report, but what are the technicals telling traders. In this video I take a look at the key levels in play and explain why.

USDCHF breaks out. The pair surges outside the "Red Box" after stronger US jobs report

The US jobs report has sent the USDCHF, finally outside of the up and down trading range that has mostly confined the pair between 0.8399 and 0.85368. The price was trading near 0.85166 ahead of the report, and has now surged up to 0.8607. At the high, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the mid-August high. That level comes in at 0.86049.

The price has since rotated back down toward 0.8587. The 50% midpoint of that same move lower (from mid-AUgust high) comes in at 0.85608 and will now be a support target on the downside. Stay above and the buyers remain in firm controla after the breakout.

On the daily chart, a swing area hi comes in at 0.8580. That level will now be a close support level as well. If the price can hold above that level, a continuation move to the upside and a retest of the 61.8% retracement level target would be expected.